He won't say how many tried and died

Up against the top hand, up against the wrong man. There are a couple of subjects I'd like to put to bed on here, and move on to something else. One is to try to make it clear to people just how far uphill you're going when you chase the dream. Wouldn't it be great to sip champagne with Vince and Shania, with 2 million dollars piled up in front of you ? To hold up the winning WSOP hand for the cameras, gold bracelet placed front and centre on top of your huge mound of $100s ? Chris Moneymaker did it, why not me ?

For one reason, Chris Moneymaker has more bottle and nerve than 99% of the people who try their luck, but more importantly, we never get to see the thousands and thousands who couldn't qualify online. Who missed out in the $1000 supers. Who got half way through the field before running into Aces. Who even made the last three tables and then cracked.

With the WPT running an event every month, this should give us a better picture. Here are the winners from Series 2 (not counting crap like Invitationals and Ladies Nights) :

David Benyamine
Mel Judah
Noli Francisco
Erick Lindgren
Hoyt Corkins
Paul Phillips
Gus Hansen
Barry Greenstein
Antonio Esfandiari
Phil Gordon
Erick Lindgren again
Michael Kinney
Martin de Knijff

And series 3 so far :

Surinder Sunar
Doyle Brunson
Daniel Negreanu

How many amateurs can we see on there ? Perhaps Michael Kinney, I don't know, but I do know he played very well in that final. I could list off the runners up and there'd only be two or three amateurs max. Most weeks there are one or two who make the final, but they can't go the extra mile and win it, mostly because of the pressure I suspect. Even if you qualify for something like this you are up against people who have huge advantages, as follows :

• They're better than you (duh)
• They're much more experienced
• They're used to playing 8 hours a day for 4 days at that level, with that intensity
• They can handle playing for large amounts of money without it affecting their decisions
• Many are backed which eases pressure considerably (Josh Arieh in his ESPN interview : "Yes I am backed, and a lot of the top players are backed as well. "). Many of the others are independently well off, eg Phil Gordon and Paul Phillips

You can't just look at the odd winner when you think about this. It's like asking a jackpot winner what he thinks of the lottery, or asking the Queen if we should keep the monarchy. Have a look at this for example. Here's a very clever guy, to whom money is no object, travelling the WPT. No disrespect is intended, but count up the events he has played and how much he's won. He's doing his nuts. Do you think you can do any better ?

Take the odd shot if you like but wasting a lot of time and money on this is a bad idea. Think about how many tried and died before you draw against the John Wesley Hardins of the poker world.