Pattern Recognition
Pattern recognition, it is said, is one of the faculties that we, as cavemen type dudes, developed to set us apart from the monkeys. Like many of the attributes we evolved to survive, now that we've stopped evolving [because you don't have to be clever, or brave, or strong, or anything to reproduce now] it's sometimes less useful. For example, it's what so makes so many people think that Internet poker is rigged. Leaving that particular can of worms wriggling in the corner, let's try some more useful pattern recognition. Here are my results from my last 5 US trips :
..................................................MTTs.......STTs.....Supers
WPO 2003 (Tunica)...................-2010......-215..........-220
Mid-America 03 (Tunica)...........-2140......+255.........-800
WPC 04 (Reno)...........................-1890......-45..........-340
WSOP 04 (Vegas)........................-1180......+3260.....-1700
4 Queens 04 (Vegas)...................-1215......+2350.......-450 *
* I wasn't going to play any supers this time ; the two I did play were effectively single table and winner take all because there were so few runners. Nonetheless they did have rebuys so I can't really count them as STTs.
Let's use our evolved brains to spot some patterns (and I don't mean the columns not being lined up)
Multi-Table tournaments : Oh dear. Looks like I suck pretty bad, as our American cousins would say. That's 19 tournaments, $9900 paid in, and two cashes : 21st for $687 and 22nd for $800. And people wonder why I didn't want to play the $3000 NL at the WSOP !
Note 19/9/04 : I have just realised that those two cashes were in Stud Hi-Lo and Limit Hold-em respectively. And the one time I was unlucky and finished on the bubble was Pot-Limit. Draw your own conclusions - I already have.
Super-satellites : Oh dear oh dear. Played 13, Paid $3510, Return $0.
Single table satellites : Looking good, but there's more. My record [since 2001] in single table satellites with a buy-in of $100 or more is : Played 35, Net $5,920. [compared with 50 : $300 for less than $100 - most of these were before I acquired a basic understanding of how to play STTs, and most of the $100+ were after].
So. I am the first to admit that two sets of 30-odd is a small sample. I believe my expected rate of return in multi-tables (of both types) is probably more than 10% of my investment. Similarly, I doubt whether my expected ROI on single tables is quite as high as 250%. Nonetheless, a pattern emerges, and it suggests a strategy. A strategy of not playing MTTs/supers, of playing STTs instead. Hell, a strategy of doing anything except playing MTTs/supers. $2-4 limit. $5 blackjack. Five armadillo slot machines. Flicking my plums in my room. Had I spent my time doing any of the above instead, I might have $13K more in my pocket right now. I know hindsight is 20/20, but did it really take me 18 months to realise this ? Not so good.
And so, an obvious conclusion. Padraig Parkinson once warned me to watch out for "professional satellite scum". Maybe he should have warned me about becoming one :-)
..................................................MTTs.......STTs.....Supers
WPO 2003 (Tunica)...................-2010......-215..........-220
Mid-America 03 (Tunica)...........-2140......+255.........-800
WPC 04 (Reno)...........................-1890......-45..........-340
WSOP 04 (Vegas)........................-1180......+3260.....-1700
4 Queens 04 (Vegas)...................-1215......+2350.......-450 *
* I wasn't going to play any supers this time ; the two I did play were effectively single table and winner take all because there were so few runners. Nonetheless they did have rebuys so I can't really count them as STTs.
Let's use our evolved brains to spot some patterns (and I don't mean the columns not being lined up)
Multi-Table tournaments : Oh dear. Looks like I suck pretty bad, as our American cousins would say. That's 19 tournaments, $9900 paid in, and two cashes : 21st for $687 and 22nd for $800. And people wonder why I didn't want to play the $3000 NL at the WSOP !
Note 19/9/04 : I have just realised that those two cashes were in Stud Hi-Lo and Limit Hold-em respectively. And the one time I was unlucky and finished on the bubble was Pot-Limit. Draw your own conclusions - I already have.
Super-satellites : Oh dear oh dear. Played 13, Paid $3510, Return $0.
Single table satellites : Looking good, but there's more. My record [since 2001] in single table satellites with a buy-in of $100 or more is : Played 35, Net $5,920. [compared with 50 : $300 for less than $100 - most of these were before I acquired a basic understanding of how to play STTs, and most of the $100+ were after].
So. I am the first to admit that two sets of 30-odd is a small sample. I believe my expected rate of return in multi-tables (of both types) is probably more than 10% of my investment. Similarly, I doubt whether my expected ROI on single tables is quite as high as 250%. Nonetheless, a pattern emerges, and it suggests a strategy. A strategy of not playing MTTs/supers, of playing STTs instead. Hell, a strategy of doing anything except playing MTTs/supers. $2-4 limit. $5 blackjack. Five armadillo slot machines. Flicking my plums in my room. Had I spent my time doing any of the above instead, I might have $13K more in my pocket right now. I know hindsight is 20/20, but did it really take me 18 months to realise this ? Not so good.
And so, an obvious conclusion. Padraig Parkinson once warned me to watch out for "professional satellite scum". Maybe he should have warned me about becoming one :-)
2 Comments:
Another problem that humnas have is ego. I know that I had a big thing about being good at limit hilo, which my figures always disproved. Yet I kept playing it regardless. For probably a year longer than I should. But now its confined to the poker dustbin. Somtimes the thought of being good at something gets caught up in your self-image and unless you are The Camel, its best to focus on what you make money it. Stick to those single tables!
gl
Dave
Dave,
After allowing your comment to sink in for a couple of days, you are spot on. I preach about keeping your ego out of the game but subconsciously, insidiously, I have been playing tournaments for too long out of a desire to prove something. To myself or someone else, I don't know.
I am switching my on-line focus to limit HE cash. It's at least a refreshing change so far. I'll let you know how it goes !
Andy.
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