Get It Quietly

Football, bollocks and a bit of poker if you're lucky.

Location: Enfield, London, United Kingdom

Thursday, August 26, 2004

More spreadsheet fun

Just for fun (it's a laugh a minute round here I can tell you) I worked out some bankroll requirements for various types of tournaments. In each case, I am assuming a win rate of $30/hr. For online games I am assuming playing two games simultaneously (so a rate of $15/hr in each game). The buy-ins are the level I believe I would need to play at to achieve the required rate, when considering how long the game takes to play. Rake is 10% of buyin. In each case the bankroll requirement is the largest downside experienced in a single 20,000 hour (= 20 hours a week for 20 years) Monte Carlo simulation.

Now, I'm not going to take the Samuel route here and quote my figures to 4 decimal places because I know they are totally dependent on my assumptions. These are approximations. I will say that they should at least be reasonably accurate in relation to each other - if one is too low, they're probably all too low, or too high. Enough chit chat, here are the results :


$30 50/30/20 STTs : $500
$30 Winner Take All STTs : $2,000
$40 Small (50-100 runner) MTTs : $2,500
$100 Large (150-200 runner) MTTs : $7,500

B & M Casino

$80 Small (50 runner) MTTs : $5,500
$300 Large (150 runner) MTTs : $25,000

A few comments :

Yes, you really only need $500 in your bankroll if you can play $30 STTs with an EV of $15 per tournament. At this rate you'll be cashing more than 50% of the time.

Yes, you really do need to buy in for $300 to achieve a $30/hr rate in large B+M MTTs partially because the field is tougher but mostly because they take so long. If anything this is an under-estimation. Daniel Negreanu has claimed his expected hourly rate in tournaments is $50/hr ; and bear in mind he is a very good player who spends a lot of time in much bigger tournaments than $300.

One category I have missed out is B+M single table satellites. This is simply because if you are good enough to make $30/hr in the other games you should be good enough to make twice as much in B+M STTs at US festivals - probably three times. They're that soft. So it's difficult to make an exact comparison. I will say that if you're making $60 a go in $100 STTs then your bankroll requirement is about $4,000 if you chop, $7,000 if you don't.

So there you have it. And don't forget, unless first prize is going to change your life, hourly rate and bankroll are basically all that matter. I know it doesn't feel like that playing tournaments, but it is. See you in the Sit and Goes.

30/8/04 Footnote : I was just checking a textbook today to ensure my calculations were valid and I came across the following quote from Mason Malmuth : "Many people have a fairly good idea what their win rates are. Almost no one has any idea of what their standard deviations are, even though for many people this parameter is just as important - or even more important - than the expectation". Damn straight.


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