Get It Quietly

Football, bollocks and a bit of poker if you're lucky.

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Location: Enfield, London, United Kingdom

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Wednesday Afternoon Quarterbacks

I'm very loath to comment on any WSOP hands because it's very difficult for reporters to verify all the details, and a very small discrepancy can completely change the rationale for a decision. Nonetheless it seems to be a fully accepted version of events that, after a player in early position with around 1 million in chips made it 30K to go, Tiffany Williamson moved in for one million with AQ, and the guy called her with Kings. Ace on the flop, better luck next year.

Tiffany, who knows. At least she is giving herself a chance and good luck to her. But what drives me almost to despair is that posters on Gutshot are criticising the guy who called with Kings.

This is plumbing new depths of idiocy. He obviously had a good idea that the all-in was not definitely Aces, in fact he might well have known for a fact that it wasn't Aces, depending on his read of the situation. One million chips sounds like a lot but it's only 2% of the chips in play. You will need about 6 million to have an average stack in the final. If you want to "outplay them later", can someone let me know when exactly "later" is ? We're down to 60 runners out of 5600. But this isn't late enough ? How exactly would you accumulate 1 million chips by "waiting to outplay them later" for four days ? Fucked if I know. Which is why I would take every edge I could. Now. I should be glad that others will "wait". Which is why I post this here and not on Gutshot :-)

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just read the thread you refer to five minutes ago. Insanity. I think people are applying a concept which in any case is outdated, in a manner that can only be described as absurd. Or partisan. Or results oriented. Or all three.

Regards,
Richard

1:46 AM  
Anonymous Peter B said...

I'm amazed by it all. What was the gibberish one guy wrote? "Gears"?

Gears???

The only thing that stops me taking these tournaments as seriously as you do is not that I don't think that I could win at them (the average quality of player actually seems to be falling....) but because I can't see the hourly rate being there, and I don't like the long waits between wins.

But, really.

I was hoping that your own argument would be a bit more analytical, along the lines of your points in "what to do when you don't have magical powers".

Put the woman on a range of hands (which appear to be Ace-Seven or better!) and work out the chance that they are Aces. In the Williamson case, there needs to be a less than 60% chance that they are Aces for the call to be right, I think. The caller with kings probably put the chance that she had aces at about 5% (the 5% being "the chance that I have misread her something chronic").

Pete

7:36 AM  
Blogger Andy_Ward said...

Forums aren't the place for that level of analysis I think. Better to just drop a few hints and let those who are prepared to make an effort work it out for themselves. The majority just don't want to be told.

Andy.

8:48 AM  
Anonymous Richard said...

Lets face it the guy with kings can't be criticised. However the all-in with AQ with no particular knowledge of the range of hands the original raiser might have is the potentially bad play, but good luck to her still!

I loved the comment I saw about a big stacked internet qualifier who found Ivey moved to his table...He limps and Ivey checks the BB.

$60k in the pot
Flop K rag rag

punter bets $150k into pot and live commentator reports it as

" John bets $150,000 as if to say to Phil "I've got a king, please go away""

I think I may feel like that if it were to ever happen to me!!!!

10:08 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I think I may feel like that if it were to ever happen to me!!!!"

This attitude is exasperating, and goes a long way to explaining the success of the player you mention and his other high profile peers. People who cant play the game as well as he can fail even to play the game as well as THEY can.

Regards,
Richard (Gryko)

7:55 PM  
Anonymous Richard (not Gryko) said...

Thanks, I'll think twice before making a weak joke at my own expense next time

9:28 AM  

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