Get It Quietly

Football, bollocks and a bit of poker if you're lucky.

Location: Enfield, London, United Kingdom

Saturday, August 13, 2005

A Braver Man Than I

Maybe as the most hated man in Internet Poker, Lord Miros didn't have much to lose, but kudos to him for sticking his neck over the parapet in the Tiffany Williamson Got Lucky Thread.

He is, of course, spot on. But no one will thank him for it. I predict around 8-10 responses of "you're just jealous", approximately zero of which will attempt to refute his technical points. You can't tell people what they don't want to hear.

I give Tiffany a lot of credit for realising that her best chance was to be aggressive, to play pots in a style where both players risked elimination, and to gamble. And for having the courage to play this style all the way through.

This gave her a much better chance than the people on Gutshot who twitter on about gears and outplaying them later. In fact, these were probably exactly the type of people Tiffany built her stack off in the early stages.

Nonetheless, it's not an overall winning strategy. Every year now, there'll be 3 or 4 people who get deep in the WSOP big one off a massive parlay from $10 or 40 FPPs or something. It sounds amazing when you know someone who does it, but in truth, due to the enormous number of people trying and the huge inherent luck factor in tournament poker, it's bound to happen to someone.

I had already heard how Dr. Channing took Tiffany to school last week in the £300 at the Vic ; to her credit she acknowledges it in her trip report, and this makes me think that she does have a chance to learn. Time, as ever, will tell.


Anonymous Peter B said...

If I could get through to the Gutshot site at the moment (Saturday afternoon, when the hoi polloi are watching football) then I could look at the Tiffany comments. A DDOS attack? The Vic wreaking a weird revenge?

I steer clear of this kind of thing, for just the reasons you describe. The book "Fooled By Randomness" covers the topic admirably. At least the Williamson strategy had a chance even though that chance was very small. Felicia covered this point a year or so ago when she said that, when you are up against players who are going to slaughter you post-flop, make sure that they don't get the chance so to do. And if they have Aces, then so be it.

5:33 PM  

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